“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons. Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015, the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time.
2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.
It is probable that the 1°C Celsius threshold will be crossed …
Added to that, we are witnessing a powerful El Niño event, which is still gaining in strength. This is influencing weather patterns in many parts of the world and fueled an exceptionally warm October. The overall warming impact of this El Niño is expected to continue into 2016” Michel Jarraud, WMO Secretary-General
The 2015 global average surface temperature is likely to be the warmest on record and due to a combination of a strong El Niño and human-induced global warming. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) .
2016 is set to be as hot or hotter then 2015. Per the UK MET office.
The Met Office forecast indicates the global average temperature in 2016 will be 1.14C above pre-industrial temperatures, showing how challenging it will be to meet the 1.5C goal. The Met Office said there was just a 5% chance the global average temperature in 2016 would be below that in 2015.
“The vast majority of the warming is global warming, but the icing on the cake is the big El Niño event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the Met Office.
El Niño is a natural cycle of warming in the Pacific Ocean which has a global impact on weather. The current episode is the biggest since 1998 and is peaking now, but the global temperature effects take time to spread around the globe. “We expect the peak warming from El Niño in the 2016 figures,” said Scaife.
Rising temperatures driven by global warming combined with natural variability leads to a greater chance of extreme weather events, he said: “When variability adds to the underlying warming, it can give impacts that have never been seen before.”
This clip sums it up nicely.
x YouTube Video