We are unprepared for significant disruptions coming our way in an increasingly heating world. A new study presented to the American Geophysical Union has found that air conditioning demand will overload our electrical capacity with frequent power failures. The data reflects the worst-case warming scenario (RCP8). Dismiss that scenario at your peril because that is where humans have decided to go. Booming technology, bitcoin, and other energy-gobbling industries will strain electricity grids worldwide.
The massive surge of energy use will affect the already hot American south and southwest. We have seen deadly heatwaves as far north as British Columbia, Canada. The outages in this country during a heatwave will be prolonged during times of intolerable waves of heat. Hot temperatures will increase demand for air conditioning during the day and night, where climate data finds nighttime temperatures soaring.
The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth's Future, AGU's journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.
Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree-Celsius threshold by the end of the century.
Previous research has examined the impacts of higher future temperatures on annual electricity consumption or daily peak load for specific cities or states. The new study is the first to project residential air conditioning demand on a household basis at a wide scale. It incorporates observed and predicted air temperature and heat, humidity and discomfort indices with air conditioning use by statistically representative households across the contiguous United States, collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2005-2019.
The new study projected changing usage from climate influence only, and did not consider possible population increases, changes in affluence, behavior or other factors known to affect air conditioning demand.
The heaviest air conditioning use with the greatest risk for overloading the power grid comes during heat waves, which also present the highest risk to health. Electricity generation tends to be below peak during heat waves as well, further reducing capacity, Obringer said.
Without enough capacity to meet demand, energy utilities may have to stage rolling blackouts during heat waves to avoid grid failure, like California's energy providers did in August 2020 during an extended period of record heat sometimes topping 117 degrees Fahrenheit.
"We've seen this in California already—state power suppliers had to institute blackouts because they couldn't provide the needed electricity," Obringer said. The state attributed 599 deaths to the heat, but the true toll may have been closer to 3,900.
The consequences of cascading electrical grid failures are likely to impact already vulnerable populations, including low income, non-white and older residents, first, Obringer noted.
"When they say there's going to be two weeks where you don't have cooling on average—in reality, some people will have cooling. Disadvantaged people will have less cooling," Benz said.
Americans live in a world where the crazy shows no signs of slowing down. The pro-death GQP party will fight tooth and nail to do nothing to mitigate the dangers we face.
The Federalist judges on the Supreme Court will eviscerate the EPA. Gorsuch wants to consolidate all power with the GQP judges on the court.
It will, as Ian Milhiser of VOX notes:
Even though it’s no longer likely to be implemented, the petitioners in the West Virginia case — red states, energy companies, and owners of coal mines — are fighting to get the Court to rule that the federal Clean Air Act does not authorize Obama’s plan. More importantly, they call for new limits on the Clean Air Act that would severely restrict the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to reduce greenhouse emissions in the future.
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Doctrines like nondelegation and major questions, in other words, threaten to retroactively undo decades of legislation. And, while these doctrines might hypothetically permit Congress to restore at least some old laws by enacting new versions that comply with the new rules, the filibuster all but ensures that no bill will become law.
Now, the Supreme Court appears likely to wield these doctrines to invalidate key provisions of the Clean Air Act. That means the federal government may soon have to fight climate change with both hands tied behind its back. And, if the Court does invigorate these doctrines, countless other laws could be next on the chopping block