Parts of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans all hit the record books for warmth last month, according to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. The high temperatures, particularly in the tropics, will help in forecasting the fierceness of the Atlantic hurricane season, and "the eruption of wildfires from the Amazon region to Australia, and whether the record heat and severe thunderstorms raking the southern U.S. will continue." The entirety of the tropical ocean is overheated noted Michelle L’Heureux of the US Climate Prediction Center.
Watch out.
Brian K, Sullivan writes in Greenberg Green:
Overall, the five warmest years in the world’s seas, as measured by modern instruments, have occurred over just the last half-dozen or so years. It’s “definitely climate-change related,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts. “Oceans are absorbing about 90% of the heat trapped by extra greenhouse gases.”
Worldwide, sea temperatures were 1.49 degrees Fahrenheit above average in March. That’s the second-highest level recorded since 1880 for the month of March, according to U.S. data. In 2016, temperatures were 1.55 degrees above average.
The searing global temperatures this year can also be traced back to intense climate systems around the Arctic that bottled up much of that region’s cold, preventing it from spilling south into temperate regions. Combined with global warming, this was a one-two punch for sea temperatures that’s brought them to historic highs.
One of the best-known examples of how oceans drive global weather patterns is the development of the climate system known as El Nino. It occurs when unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific interact with the atmosphere to alter weather patterns worldwide. In the Atlantic, for instance, El Ninos can cause severe wind shear that can break up developing storms with the potential to become dangerous hurricanes.
This year, the chance of an El Nino developing is small, and scientists are theorizing one reason could be that climate change is warming all the world’s oceans. El Nino “depends on contrasts, as well as absolute values of sea-surface temperatures,” according to Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
“For a long time, things can seem OK, and then suddenly they’re not, then, it’s too late to do anything about it because you’ve already fallen over this cliff edge.” Alex L. Pigot, University College London and a study author.
A new study, published in the journal Nature, warned that we can expect catastrophic ocean ecosystem collapse within 10 years if we don’t hold warming below 2 Celcius.
Let’s assume we can accomplish that goal despite the fact that we have little to zero wiggle room to maneuver in. Christopher Trisos, a scientist at the University of Cape Town and one of the authors of the study, noted: “If we take action now, we limit this abrupt disruption to 2% of the planet, but that 2% of the planet still has a lot of people living there in tropical regions. And they need our help.”
The study authors determined that under emissions-as-usual, the RCP8.5 scenario, 73 percent of “species would experience unprecedented warming with potentially disastrous effects for populations”. The collapse will be quite abrupt they say and will happen in waves.
The researchers predicted that such unprecedented temperature events will begin before 2030 in the tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. They also warn that terrestrial ecosystem collapse will be underway by 2040.
Catrin Einhart writes in the New York Times:
The latest research adds to an already bleak picture for the world’s wildlife unless urgent action is taken to preserve habitats and limit climate change. More than a million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction because of the myriad ways humans are changing the earth by farming, fishing, logging, mining, poaching and burning fossil fuels.
The study looked at more than 30,000 species on land and in water to predict how soon climate change would affect population levels and whether those levels would change gradually or suddenly. To answer these questions, the authors determined the hottest temperature that a species is known to have withstood, and then predicted when that temperature would be surpassed around the world under different emissions scenarios.
When they examined the projections, the researchers were surprised that sudden collapses appeared across almost all species — fish, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals — and across almost all regions.
“It’s not that it happens in some places,” said Cory Merow, an ecologist at the University of Connecticut and one of the study’s authors. “No matter how you slice the analysis, it always seems to happen.”