A precipitous drop in Antarctic sea ice wiped out three decades of gains in under three years.

A NASA study found that Antarctica’s sea ice plunged from record highs to record lows in just three years (2014-2017). The difference is the loss of an area the size of Mexico.

Seth Borenstein of the Associated Press writes::

The amount of ice circling Antarctica is suddenly plunging from a record high to record lows, baffling scientists.

Floating ice off the southern continent steadily increased from 1979 and hit a record high in 2014. But three years later, the annual average extent of Antarctic sea ice hit its lowest mark, wiping out three-and-a-half decades of gains — and then some, a NASA study of satellite data shows.

In recent years, “things have been crazy,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. In an email, he called the plummeting ice levels “a white-knuckle ride.”

Serreze and other outside experts said they don’t know if this is a natural blip that will go away or more long-term global warming that is finally catching up with the South Pole. Antarctica hasn’t shown as much consistent warming as its northern Arctic cousin.

“But the fact that a change this big can happen in such a short time should be viewed as an indication that the Earth has the potential for significant and rapid change,” University of Colorado ice scientist Waleed Abdalati said in an email.

This could be a vicious feedback loop, whereas the more sea ice melts, the more solar heat enters the ocean and melts more of the sea ice.  Rinse and repeat.

Interesting video from the McMurdo Oceanographic Observatory on sea ice retreat at their station.

Watch how the 2m-thick sea ice broke out in front of McMurdo Station, Antarctica over the last few days (Feb. 3-4, 2019). With a strong south wind, the ice front receded stepwise around Hut Point Peninsula. The major disintegration events were extremely fast, 15-30 min. The summer sea ice breakout is a normal occurrence that happens in most years. But, it didn't occur last year.

Mark Kaufman writes in Mashable:

The Antarctic region is objectively a vastly different and more complicated region that the Arctic — which unlike the Southern Ocean doesn’t have a massive, frozen continent sitting in the middle of its pole. Also, Antarctic oceans aren’t bound by big land masses — namely Alaska, Canada, and Siberia — like the Arctic. This leaves Antarctic sea ice all the more exposed to natural changes in circulating ocean and atmospheric conditions.

"It’s more complex," explained Ethan Campbell, a University of Washington Ph.D. student in physical oceanography who researches Antarctic ice. Campbell had no role in the NASA study.

Polar scientists have long been working to unravel the complexity. "There has been a lot of speculation about what could conceivably have been causing, for decades, an overall increase in sea ice in the Southern Ocean — but there wasn’t ever a consensus viewpoint," said NASA’s Parkinson.

Now, after the abrupt reversal of ice growth, researchers have the opportunity to better examine what forces could drive such sustained ice increases, followed by such big losses, she explained.

One thing, however, is more certain. In stark contrast to the Arctic, it’s much too soon to say whether global warming is at fault. "Anyone who speculates conclusively that the new downward trends are related to climate change are far overstating the understanding we have," noted Campbell.

This is the link to the Sea Ice Forum, Daily Kos Blogger FishOutofWater participates there.