The IPCC 1.5C report released 2 weeks ago, continues to be flushed out on what it signifies about human intervention in the planets climate system and what we do to make the blow we will take less intense. Those that research the data on climate change are very worried about what is left out of the report and that is tipping points and feedback loops, “thresholds that, if passed, could send the Earth into a spiral of runaway climate change”.
On August 2017, NASA reported on research that we can expect a major series of boosts or pulses of methane from the Arctic’s permafrost (soil and rock that has been frozen continuously for years).
New NASA-funded research has discovered that Arctic permafrost’s expected gradual thawing and the associated release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere may actually be sped up by instances of a relatively little-known process called abrupt thawing. Abrupt thawing takes place under a certain type of Arctic lake, known as a thermokarst lake that forms as permafrost thaws.
The impact on the climate may mean an influx of permafrost-derived methane into the atmosphere in the mid-21st century, which is not currently accounted for in climate projections.
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Further unknowns include the effects of climate change on carbon sinks, such as soils and forests: Higher temperatures could dry out some soils, causing them to release stored carbon into the air. But increased rainfall — a symptom of climate change in some regions — could in other areas be making it harder for forest soils to trap greenhouse gases such as methane.
Mario Molina, who shared the Nobel prize in chemistry in 1995 for his work on depletion of the ozone layer, said: “The IPCC report demonstrates that it is still possible to keep the climate relatively safe, provided we muster an unprecedented level of cooperation, extraordinary speed and heroic scale of action. But even with its description of the increasing impacts that lie ahead, the IPCC understates a key risk: That self-reinforcing feedback loops could push the climate system into chaos before we have time to tame our energy system, and the other sources of climate pollution.”
Currently, there is an Unprecedented Lack of Refreeze Across Arctic as Ice Continues to Melt. In addition to the lack of refreezing of sea ice, scientists have also confirmed that some Arctic soil does not freeze at all even during the winter.
The Sea Ice Forum discusses what Arctic Amplification will mean for those of us in the mid-latitudes.
"Future impacts from extreme weather are likely to be most pronounced in summer. Though the uncertainties are large, changes in atmosphere dynamics have the potential to cause rapid transitions at a regional scale leading to surprises for society. In summer synergistic effects between thermodynamic and dynamic drivers of extreme weather could act in the same direction to cause very-extreme extremes. This presents risks for society and in particular for global food production, given that the major breadbasket regions are located in the mid-latitudes with many crop types vulnerable to heat extremes."
Methane gas released from seep holes at the bottom of Alaska's Esieh Lake ripples the surface. Polar bears are shown scavenging on the carcass of a dead bowhead whale that washed ashore on Wrangel Island, Russia. A new study led by the University of Washington found that although dead whales are still valuable sources of fat and protein for some polar bears, this resource will likely not be enough to sustain most bear populations in the future when the Arctic becomes ice-free in summers, which is likely to occur by 2040 due to climate change. The results were published online Oct. 9 in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Meltwater cascades from beneath a glacier into Icy Bay, Alaska, as seen from an Operation Ice Bridge flight. "First results have shown that the depth of ten meters over 30 years the permafrost soils’ temperatures have raised by 2-3 degrees Celsius," Tass press service quoted the scientist as saying. "We shall be processing the received data, but already now we can confirm clearly that the permafrost is getting warmer below the level of annual fluctuation. The permafrost, which takes 65% of Russia's territory and about 30% of the world, in the XXI century, faces the threat of degradation in the climate warming and due to the anthropogenic reasons. Scientists forecast - only the fifth part of the Russian permafrost area can survive by the middle of the century. This true-color image, captured by the NOAA-20 satellite on July 30, 2018, shows a large phytoplankton bloom in the Barents Sea. “Patricia Yager, professor of Marine Sciences at the University of Georgia who was not involved with the new study, said the earlier algal bloom growth they observed in some areas could have considerable impacts if animals are not yet ready to graze on the phytoplankton. “Such a mismatch in time could cause major changes to the Arctic food web, impacting not only the local animals and the people who live there, but also the global population of migrating animals who depend on these Arctic resources,” Yager said. “What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” x xYouTube VideoAdditional links.
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