A collaborative effort by Chinese researchers resulted in a new study that was recently published in the journal The Institute of Atmospheric Physics with incredibly disturbing news for most life on the planet. They found that the world can expect a 4 degree Celsius increase above pre-industrial levels as early as 2064 (Median year will be 2084).
As we barrel down to this frightening new world, the World Bank warned that we will witness a “triggering cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people” as a result.
To understand the severity of this, consider the Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement) of the United Nations. It's a global effort to prevent an increase of 2°C. Nearly every country on the planet--the United States is the only country to withdraw--has agreed to work to prevent the catastrophic effects of two degrees of warming.
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"A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4 °C level, with respect to the preindustrial period," said Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies."
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They found that most of the models projected an increase of 4°C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095 in the 21st century, with 2084 appearing as the median year.
This increase translates to more annual and seasonal warming over land than over the ocean, with significant warming in the Arctic. The variability of temperature throughout one year would be lower in the tropics and higher in polar regions, while precipitation would most likely increase in the Arctic and in the Pacific. These are the same effects that would occur under 1.5°C or 2°C increases, but more severe.
Well fuck! Scientists have warned us for decades that these worst case scenarios would be extremely likely if we didn’t decarbonize quickly. Despite all the flashing red lights, we chose to ignore their warnings, so, here we are.
We continue to pump vast amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, every single second and around the clock. If world governments would put in the effort, we just might be able to salvage some of what is left still today. But far to many of us stand at the precipice and are blind to the abyss below.