According to comprehensive new paper and report commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund, University of East Anglia (UK), and the James Cook University (Australia) found that climate change threatens local extinctions for half of all plant and animal species in the world’s biodiverse hotspots. If the world is able to keep to the 2°C mark set by the Paris Climate agreement that percentage will fall to 25%.
It finds that the Miombo Woodlands home to African wild dogs, south-west Australia and the Amazon-Guianas are projected to be some the most affected areas. If there was a 4.5°C global mean temperature rise, the climates in these areas are projected to become unsuitable for many the plants and animals that currently live there meaning:
Up to 90% of amphibians, 86% of birds and 80% of mammals could potentially become locally extinct in the Miombo Woodlands, Southern Africa The Amazon could lose 69% of its plant species In south-west Australia 89% of amphibians could become locally extinct 60% of all species are at risk of localised extinction in Madagascar The Fynbos in the Western Cape Region of South Africa, which is experiencing a drought that has led to water shortages in Cape Town, could face localised extinctions of a third of its species, many of which are unique to that region.As well as this, increased average temperatures and more erratic rainfall could become be the “new normal” according to the report - with significantly less rainfall in the Mediterranean, Madagascar and the Cerrado-Pantanal in Argentina. Potential effects include:
Pressure on the water supplies of African elephants – who need to drink 150-300 litres of water a day 96% of the breeding grounds of Sundarbans tigers could become submerged by sea-level rise Comparatively fewer male marine turtles due to temperature-induced sex assignment of eggs.If species are unable to migrate to new areas they may not be able to survive according to the authors. “Most plants, amphibians and reptiles, such as orchids, frogs and lizards cannot move quickly enough to keep up with these climatic changes.”
Platanthera praeclara, known as the western prairie fringed orchid and the Great Plains white fringed orchid, is a rare and threatened species of orchid native to North America.The Guardian expands on the study:
The authors considered how warmer weather and wilder rainfall patterns (more droughts and storms) could negatively affect savannas in Africa, jungles in Bangladesh, the Cerrado-Pantanal in Brazil, the Yangtze delta and coastlines in Europe, Madagascar and the Caribbean. It noted how this would create tensions over water between humans and animals, for example African elephants, which drink as much as 250 litres (50 gallons) a day. Sea-level rises would also be devastating for many species, such as tigers in the Sundarbans, which would see 96% of breeding grounds submerged.
The losses might even be higher because the disappearance of one species - such as a tree - can have a knock-on effect on other ecosystems. Fewer plants can also means less rain, according to other recent studies on the role played by the Amazon. More pressing risks – such as habitat loss from land clearance and pollution – were not accounted for.
William Laurance, director of the Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, said: “For the Amazon and Guianas, the WWF report is scary as hell. The loss of half or more of the region’s stunning plant diversity would be a biological blow of almost unimaginable severity.