The Paris Agreement that attempts to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius was a surprise political victory for poor and island countries threatened by the effects of climate change. The target was considered unlikely at the time by many, because the global economy simply cannot be weaned off fossil fuels quickly enough. Many of the predictions was that the threshold would be passed sometime in the 2040’s. Today the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom found the 1.5 limit will be breached within 5 years albeit temporarily.
A new forecast published by scientists at the Met Office indicates the annual global average temperature is likely to exceed 1 °C and could reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels during the next five years (2018-2022).
There is also a small (around 10%) chance that at least one year in the period could exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), although it is not anticipated that it will happen this year. It is the first time that such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts.
Prof Stephen Belcher, Chief Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Given we’ve seen global average temperatures around 1 °C above pre-industrial levels over the last three years, it is now possible that continued warming from greenhouse gases along with natural variability could combine so we temporarily exceed 1.5 °C in the next five years.”
The Paris agreement requires us to limit warming well below 2 °C and to aim for 1.5 °C. Dr Doug Smith, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “We are now starting to see a small but real chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 °C level, but we should remember that the Paris agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion.”
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