Thomas Nilson writing for The Independent Barents Observer in January of 2017 on a US-Russian study that was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, the US Science Foundation and the George Washington University. The study (Russian text) found a “A significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century,”.
A worst-case scenario could lead to a 75-95% reduction in bearing capacity throughout the permafrost region by 2050, the researchers write in the publication.
Last autumn, the Barents Observer reported that Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) issued a warning claiming by the year 2050, the extension of the permafrost in Russia might be reduced by 25% and be the end of the century – by up to 56%.
“This will imply growing risk for a breakdown of buildings, transport infrastructure and pipelines”, Acting Head of the Ministry’s Center of Emergency Monitoring and Prognosis, Konstantin Moskin said.
A construction worker works on a permafrost pillar to stabilise a building in Salekhard, Russia.The Russian cities of Salekhard and Anadyr are experiencing the fastest changes per the study. The report states that the “building capacity have potential to reach critical levels by mid 2020’s”.
Nilson notes that the city of Norilsk, which has the largest population (177,000) in Russia’s permafrost region, the building carrying capacity decrease will pass the halfway mark in the 2040’s.
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“In Norilsk the projected climate-induced decrease in bearing capacity will exceed 55% around the 2040s”.
Norilsk, where most buildings are older than in Salekhard, is also facing a negative anthropogenic impact on infrastructure as well. The study says undetected sewage and water leaks, reduction in centralized snow removal and violation of construction codes contributes to further warming of the permafrost below the foundations.
tic tic tic….
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