Report: Nile Delta’s increasing salinity and rising sea levels may empty Egypt by 2100.

As if the Middle East is not in crisis enough, a new report published in the Geological Society of America’s May issue, warns that Egypt will face nationwide water shortages within 7 years.  The report further predicts dwindling freshwater supplies and increasing salinity levels of the Nile delta’s agricultural land due to sea level rise caused by our burning of fossil fuels which result in heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  This might make the north African nation uninhabitable by 2100 the authors conclude.

Jano Charbel, of Mada reports:

The non-profit US organization’s report attributes these changes to the effects of climate change and increased human activity near the Nile in recent decades, including the construction of dams on the river in Egypt and in Ethiopia.  

“A minimal relative sea-level rise of ~100 cm is predicted between now and the year 2100 at the Nile delta’s coast,” the report reads. If the prediction is accurate, the new sea level will be approximately one meter higher than the average sea level along Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, which, in addition to land subsidence and salinification of agricultural lands in the Nile Delta, will likely have a significant impact on Egypt’s population, agricultural production and the overall habitability.

“It is not necessarily the case that whole towns and cities along Egypt’s Mediterranean coast will be underwater, but seeping seawater and the increasing salinity of soils may make the area uninhabitable,” Ahmed al-Droubi, an environmentalist and coordinator for the Egyptians Against Coal Campaign, tells Mada Masr.

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While many of the predications carry grave future developments, incremental changes are already being observed.  The GSA report asserts that soil in the delta region is being submerged at a rate of 1 cm each year due to rising sea levels, coupled with land subsidence and sediment compaction, and that the intrusion of seawater is already resulting in highly saline soils along the northern portion of the Nile Delta.  

Most of the fresh water that reaches the Nile Delta is diverted and channeled into complex and inefficient networks for the distribution of agricultural water. Open irrigation networks continue to result in a high rate of evaporation of the Nile’s fresh water, a notable fact as a report issued by the Irrigation Ministry states that agriculture accounts for around 85 percent of Egypt’s water consumption.

If, as suggested by a comprehensive new review in the journal Science, 2°C of global warming would lock in at least 20 feet (6 meters) of eventual sea level rise. We are close to blowing past the 1.5 C target and if we do not cut emissions drastically we will blow past the target of 2 C as well.

The polar ice caps right now are a major contributor to sea level rise. The US Navy animation of Arctic sea ice is terrifying as it reflects the fragile state of sea ice which is remarkably thin. Thin sea ice this early promises that the Arctic Ocean will have majority black water. Dark surfaces in the polar regions absorb more heat from the sun than a frozen white surface of ice which bounces the solar energy back to space. This feedback loop of melting sea ice will further melt Greenland and Antarctica glaciers which adds more and more meltwater to the oceans.