"For those of you who are interested in statistics, this is a five-sigma event. So it's five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we'd expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 million years." Edward Doddridge, Physical Oceanographer, Research Associate Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, UTAS, and a Theme Leader in the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP).
Antarctica's sea ice has yet to recover this winter for the first time in millions of years, baffling ocean and atmospheric scientists according to reporting published by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Earlier this year, the extreme decline in sea ice around the crucial ice continent that regulates the Earth's climate was observed. This year's ice decline was not the first time the phenomenon was witnessed. There were all-time lows in 2016, 2017, and 2022, but the sea ice recovered in those years. The fear is that the ice will not recover this year even though the continent is in a dark and bitterly cold winter. That is a problem and portends a worsening decline in the critical climate regulator.
‘The phase of a climate pattern called the Southern Annular Mode is also an important driver of sea ice extremes in the Antarctic due to its influence on regional winds and storminess. It is also very likely that ocean heat in the Southern Ocean may be inhibiting some of the sea ice growth. In other words, even if the air temperatures are well below freezing, a warmer ocean can still inhibit the formation of sea ice.Edward Doddridge, a member of the Australian Antarctic Program, communicates with other Antarctic scientists worldwide on the rapid changes occurring in the southern ocean and the Antarctic continent. He stated that this is the first time the sea ice has been this low in the satellite record.
"There are people saying it could be natural variability," he said. "Absolutely we can't conclusively rule it out yet. But it's very unlikely."
We know that this is what the world is going to look like as it warms.
"It may be that next winter it comes back. We can hope. I don't know that it will."
On top of that, scientists do not know where the change is coming from — the seas or the atmosphere.
Dr Doddridge believes it is due to changes in sea temperatures — but Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, is of the opinion it is due to a combination of both changes in the atmosphere and warming seas.
"The whole system that we are looking at, we know it's strongly coupled," Dr Heil said.
"Any change in any of the components, even in a region far away or it might be close by in the region that you are studying, is coupled to the whole system.
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Either way, she fears a further change in the balance could trigger a tipping point from where it's difficult to reverse the trajectory.
"We might end up in a new state," she said.
"That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.
The loss of Antarctic sea ice mirrors what is observed in the Arctic’s death spiral. It is called the ablation effect or Arctic Amplification, where the expansive white of the polar ice caps reflects solar heat energy back to space, is reduced by melting, and incoming solar radiation is instead absorbed into the dark waters of the Arctic and Southern Oceans in a loop that feeds even more melting. Rinse and repeat.
“While the Northern Hemisphere swelters under record-smashing heatwaves, the dramatic loss of sea ice around Antarctica is another symptom of our rapidly warming global climate. Antarctic sea ice is off the charts this year. Normally at this time of year the sea ice would be rapidly expanding around Antarctica, but this year that ice is struggling to form. “Over the last decade the area covered by sea ice around Antarctica has reduced by around two million square kilometres. That far exceeds the total Arctic Sea ice loss over the last 40 years. The loss of Antarctic sea ice is yet another demonstration of the profound ways that we are altering our planet. We need to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero, and then below zero emissions.”It is a vicious feedback loop that furthers the melting of reflective ice. This disruption to the ice cycle affects the ocean currents that regulate climate and the distribution of nutrients across oceans, supporting all life on Earth.
Even with record-breaking cold temperatures, the Antarctic’s sea ice has still not recovered. The damage is happening below the surface. Some call this a result of deep ocean heat.
Minus 82.7 Celcius is Minus 116.86 Fahrenheit.
Your moment of cute.