We don’t know what will happen when an El Nino meets the record obliterating temperatures of the overheated ocean. It’s never happened in recorded history. We will soon find out.
Be kind to each other. El Nino has arrived and the planet's climate will be tested.
I have to share just a clip of beautiful firefighters from South Africa arriving in Canada to help put out fires. Respect.
In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive [Fig. 3], reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions.
The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 7].
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 July 2023.
Each ENSO phase influences the pressure and weather in the tropics differently. This affects the overall global circulation over time, changing the weather patterns worldwide.
A (cold/warm) phase usually develops between late Summer and early Fall. It then lasts until Spring, but some events can last up to two or three years. The last phase was a cold La Niña and it spanned three years.
The cold ENSO phase is called La Niña, and the warm phase is called El Niño. Besides the ocean temperatures, one of the main differences between the phases is the pressure patterns they promote, seen below as high (H) and low (L) pressure zones.